Democrats are 'blue-state headaches are threatening to open the door to Republican red wave Axios

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

House Republicans House Republicansare becoming more confident that they can get their hands on very Democratic districts in the congressional district, including in the bluest states of this country. California, Connecticut, New York, Oregon and Rhode Island.

What is the significance of HTML0:Following the money is equally important as following the (limited) public polling of the Congress. Republicans are currently pouring $25 million to some of the most blue-colored battlegrounds across the globe as a signal that the political winds favor the GOP on the home stretch.

  • The Congressional Leadership Fund, aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, has spent or reserved more than $23 million in ads across eight districts held by Democrats that President Biden won with two-digit margins. (Ariz.-4, Calif.-13, Calif.-47, Calif.-49, Conn.-5, N.Y.-17, Ore.-4, R.I.-2.)
  • It is also worth noting that the NRCC has also spent $2.2 million on hybrid or coordinated ads with their candidates in five additional districts with a Democratic majority which Biden won by double-digits. (Calif.-26, Ga.-2, N.M.-3, N.Y.-4, Ore.-6).

Zoom into:Republicans are bullish they will be victorious in this year’s Oregon Governor’s election for the first time in 1982, buoyed by a partisan feud. Democrats are defending themselves with a vengeance of three biden friendly House contests in Oregon and also.

  • In the Rhode Island district that Biden won by 14 points, the Boston Globe/Suffolk university survey found Republican Allan Fung leading by eight points ahead of Democrat Seth Magaziner.
  • In the Connecticut district that Biden won with a margin of 11. Republicans have spent $2.7 million to defeat Rep. Jahana Hayes. The seat hasn’t seen any serious debate challenged since 2012, but Republicans have nominated an unpopular Black State legislator named George Logan, who’s showing broad appeal to both parties.
  • Democrats are also worried over a variety of New York battlegrounds, even after the awe-inspiring special election win by Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) in August. In the outside, GOP groups are investing money to win four seats that are held by Democrats located in Hudson Valley and Long Island as well as attempting to defend the upstate Republican seat that is in Biden’s favor.

The mystery:One of the New York seats where Republicans are spending a lot of money is the seat that was redrawn by DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, whose suburban New York City district backed Biden by 10 points. The outside Republican groups are spending more than $2 million on ads against Maloney to gain support for Republican statesman Mike Lawler. Assemblyman Mike Lawler.

In between:One common denominator in the majority of blue-state elections The issue is crime. The number of murders has been increasing in the large metropolitan areas in these states as well as in the vicinity of these districts. Republican’s campaign has harmed Democrats on bail reform, shifting resources away from police and creating a general feeling of disorder.

  • Another reason, according to one Republican official who is analyzing internal information, is that abortion isn’t as enticing of a topic as it used to be. Moreover, people are more comfortable that about their rights to reproductive health in states in which Republicans are in minority.
  • Additionally to that, none of these blue states has a lot of contested Senate races, which is driving higher turnout, which favors Republicans. Another House GOP strategist told Axios that their candidates are outperforming across these blue states however, they aren’t yet able to pull away in swing districts that typically have the higher Democratic involvement has kept the races close.

The final word:The fact that Biden has spent money on political campaigns within Democratic majorities Oregon as well as California during this time — just one month away from Election Day — speaks about the general mood.